The streak of excellent polls for Democrats continues. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows the generic ballot at D +8, and this week’s YouGov/Economist wave has it at D +12 among likely voters. As a result, Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate are up to 65 percent in our Deluxe forecast. That’s the highest they’ve been this cycle.
In today’s update, we’re also correcting a bug in how FLIPR Deluxe was handling one set of expert ratings, Inside Elections. When this source only updated some of its ratings (e.g., it changed its rating for NH-Sen while leaving the others alone), FLIPR was treating the other ratings as blank and falling back to a prior based on partisanship and incumbency rather than falling back to the previously listed Inside Elections rating.This did not affect the other two expert rating sources (Cook and Crystal Ball). The impact of this was modest, affecting the average FLIPR Deluxe projected vote margin by ~0.3 points, with the largest shifts of about ~1 point. This has been fixed going forward. -NS & EMD, 9/20/26 – Nate Silver
Filled the vehicle gas tank this weekend for $108, ordered fuel oil as it’s getting cold at night for $5.85 a gallon, 200 gallons, got half a cart of groceries for $98, insurance for car and house due, $1800, and orange Don golf’s and gets more wealthy by the day. So glad he made America broke again. Impeach this lunatic, things are very bad, maybe maga love paying out their ass for shit e dry day, bur normal people dont. Yes, absolutely TDS for sure, hate the crazy bastard son of a bitch, crooked bastard. Ripping is all off.
7:35, have you tried ketogenic diet or fasting or breathing techniques or yoga, combined with strength training and cardio? There must be something natural you can do to help you feel better about Trump other than popping Xanax and smoking weed.
But, well, I told you so.’ At this point, being right is the only thing you’ve got left to feel important about—and somehow you’re still not very good at it.
22 comments:
No one cares about the Pagan Parade.
The hardest part of a two-day war
is the first 204 days
Winning!
If high gas prices upset you, remember, it’s a small price to pay for a nuke that didn’t exist and a Strait that was already open
MAGA
Ummm….. Trump today announced that his proposed arch would actually be a “top grade military complex” complete with snipers and drones.
I don’t want to say ‘I told you so’ that his mental illness was quickly spiraling out of control. I’m better than that.
But, well, I told you so.
MAMA = Making America Mental Again
Meanwhile....
Updated September 20, 2026,
The streak of excellent polls for Democrats continues. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows the generic ballot at D +8, and this week’s YouGov/Economist wave has it at D +12 among likely voters.
As a result, Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate are up to 65 percent in our Deluxe forecast. That’s the highest they’ve been this cycle.
In today’s update, we’re also correcting a bug in how FLIPR Deluxe was handling one set of expert ratings, Inside Elections. When this source only updated some of its ratings (e.g., it changed its rating for NH-Sen while leaving the others alone), FLIPR was treating the other ratings as blank and falling back to a prior based on partisanship and incumbency rather than falling back to the previously listed Inside Elections rating.This did not affect the other two expert rating sources (Cook and Crystal Ball). The impact of this was modest, affecting the average FLIPR Deluxe projected vote margin by ~0.3 points, with the largest shifts of about ~1 point. This has been fixed going forward. -NS & EMD, 9/20/26 – Nate Silver
Filled the vehicle gas tank this weekend for $108, ordered fuel oil as it’s getting cold at night for $5.85 a gallon, 200 gallons, got half a cart of groceries for $98, insurance for car and house due, $1800, and orange Don golf’s and gets more wealthy by the day. So glad he made America broke again. Impeach this lunatic, things are very bad, maybe maga love paying out their ass for shit e dry day, bur normal people dont. Yes, absolutely TDS for sure, hate the crazy bastard son of a bitch, crooked bastard. Ripping is all off.
FAUX MAGA @ 7:06... you'll sign as your adversary but you expect us to believe that you didn't cheat during the 2020 election, ya commie?
Mayor, stop posting the libtard who is always posting about Trump under every topic. The guy is unhinged and half the comments are this fool.
He sure looks like he’s got a mayoral run in him to me
A lot of us Pagans do, 6:24
7:35, have you tried ketogenic diet or fasting or breathing techniques or yoga, combined with strength training and cardio? There must be something natural you can do to help you feel better about Trump other than popping Xanax and smoking weed.
There is no intent with the Christmas parade. Won’t happen
ESOM
The TDS patients are on display today.
But, well, I told you so.’ At this point, being right is the only thing you’ve got left to feel important about—and somehow you’re still not very good at it.
Waaaa
You wanna hang today? I’ve got some old Donald Rumsfeld tapes we could listen to. Grab a 30-pack.
CHRISTMAS PARADE COME ON MAN NO ONE WANTS TO STAND AROUND WATCH A BEER WAGON GO BY WHILE LITTLE KIDS FREEZE I BET YOU WONT GET 100 PEOPLE TO SHOW UP.
Losers do, 6:24!
No one intelligent believes that there was any appreciable voter fraud in 2020, 10:10.
Start your own blog, Snowflake/10:14! 🤭
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