Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Lots of Misleading Analysis Out There

     I read a National Review story today echoing so many of the "experts" in saying Donald Trump has no path to Electoral College victory...They say that now that he is even or ahead in popular vote polling.
    In 2008, a 7.2% vote margin yielded an Electoral College win of 365-173.   In 2012 a 3.9% margin produced a 332-206 margin as Indiana, NC and Nebraska's CD-2 flipped.
     Stands to reason even a one or two point Clinton margin could provide the votes to flip some more states like Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. They are the most likely and if they flipped it's just a 279-259 for Mrs. Clinton.
       At that point , move the national meter another point or two and states like Nevada and NH come into play and that would tie it at 269-269 where the GOP would win in the House, or he could take Maine CD2 and get an even 270.
       Another way to get to 270, Trump would need another state...a Wisconsin, a Colorado or a Pennsylvania.
        So telling the American people, Mrs. Clinton has a lock is more of the misinformation being peddled as news and analysis, although I agree her path are more numerous than his in a fiddy-fiddy race.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

I see that fine muslim man who bombed people in NYC hates America. I'm guessing he would make a perfect candidate for any open Democrat party office. At the very least, he could call talk shows every day and repeat what he has been told, per se.

Anonymous said...

Kasich is never going to let that happen, he didn't take Wisconsin, Walker will never let Trump take Wisc. for after all it was Trump that ran a primary against Ryan.

Trump trumped himself right out of contention.

Danny M. Francis (Eyepublius) said...

9:12 - hey, goofball... what if and I'm just low-balling here, but what if it turns out that Rahami is a registered GOPer? Want some warm tea and warm cloth to wipe that egg off your face? Moron.

Re: the electoral college (EC) and possible outcome: Damn, you just gave T-rump another avenue and more ammo to say things are "rigged" and now the EC, too? T-rump needs nothing except another appearance on the "Alex Jones Show" to seal the deal with his base.

Trump-Jones Are Now BFF's.

Anonymous said...

The electoral votes are nearly locked up Jeff. Get over it.

Anonymous said...

10:55 Dannie, stuff it. I'm more interested in finding out how Jeff came in possession of these photos that should not have seen the light of day.

Derrick groveling in NYC with progressive Teachout and pleading with Pelosi and Biden for crumbs. He now has turned his back on any and all statements and is begging at this stage of his life for a nod from Crazy Nasty Nancy Pelosi.

No more integrity, the rank and file are done with him, no more honor he who has aligned himself with officials that are dismantling our military and national identity. He is part of the globalist vision and he wrote the book on America's military nation building.

Hubris that Teachout and Derrick see nothing wrong with these photoshots.

More importantly, Derrick needs to stop the humble and service to the country tripe.

Anonymous said...

“Lots of Misleading Analysis Out There…”

Ain’t that the truth…and you just provided yet another one.

But hey keep dreaming Jeff. And just think, in 50 short days your elbows will be so chewed to the bone you’ll have nothing left to prop you up at your friendly neighborhood bar while weeping in your Jägermeister.

Incidentally, “they say” all the aggregate polls still have Clinton ahead.

Anonymous said...

Jeff, good grief, what’s wrong with the kooky Gun Nut guy anyways? He sounded like an unhinged crazed stalker today on America’s Favorite Noontime RW Echo Chamber.

Granted, he’s generally full of stinky horse manure, but today he was heatedly frothing oodles of twaddle through a hodgepodge of agitated orifices whilst fallaciously spewing venom toward Dan for precisely the very thing he’s been culpable of for his entire hypocritical and delusional existence. At one point, his nonsensical outburst became so crass my dog howled in pain and left the room.

Is he off his meds again Jeff? Does he really own guns? More importantly, does he possess a mirror?

Maybe we should pray for him.

Anonymous said...

I read the same article Jeff, and it did not say there was 'no path' for Trump to win, just that it would be very difficult. Seems you are part of the 'death of journalism' you so frequently decry. Oh wait, you claim you are out of the journalism game.

Anonymous said...

I had to laugh when I heard the "Gun Nut" today on your show. He was all riled up about the supposed hypocrisy of Danny. Now this is a man (the gun nut) living large off the government in retirement, much like Mr. Francis. However, he calls Danny a hypocrite for being a party line (Democratic) voter and placing party above country. Fine. But his ilk feels free to call Republicans who stray from their party dogma, "RINO's" (and other less charitable epitaphs). Why can the Gun Nut demand solidarity from members of his party, but chastises Democrats who do the very same thing?? You can't have it both ways. Who is the hypocrite now??

Anonymous said...

3:48, not too bright, and certainly pointless, but I liked your post. Lots of funny words and such. And it was original. I'm glad I could brighten your day. You did mine. It sure is scary that there are people like me out there. Even worse is the fact that I'm not going away, per se.

Anonymous said...

Hope you enjoy a long and happy retirement Gun Nut- America's favorite hypocrite!!

Anonymous said...

"...More importantly, Derrick needs to stop the humble and service to the country tripe...." But if a Republican soldier on Fox News stated the same thing, you people would genuflect at him. Such phonies. You are the ruination of this country.

Anonymous said...

@7:11PM.

Gee, hate to break it to you but there is no 3:48.

By anyone’s definition, wouldn’t that make YOU “not too bright”?

Maybe your head is reeling from all the self inflicted gun powder fumes. Sleep it off and call us in the morning…. per se.

Anonymous said...

First time in history that a criminal that chose not to campaign will become president. The once proud ole u s of a might as well just join the asian union. Sad times are here folks.

rick aldrich, USMC said...

3:58; I can almost guarantee that you have less common sense, as compared to all those "big" words, you used in your post. I would rather have an ounce of wisdom, than all the knowledge you may possess. As far as meds go, I would suggest that you be specific, as you apparently do not know what you are talking about. The Gun Nut spoke truth, try living with it.

Anonymous said...

Jim Conners, USMC

“I can almost guarantee that you have less common sense, as compared to all those "big" words, you used in your post.”

Almost guarantee? Is that the best your meandering subterranean mindset can puke up?

Your playmate was slapped down because he deserved it. Don’t like it…. too bad.

Here’s a reality check for YOU. Judging from this and some of your previous comments on this blog, I can without doubt guarantee YOU are not even remotely capable of grasping what common sense is.

And like you, “big” words and common sense notwithstanding, the Gun Nut oozes obsolete manure and wouldn’t recognize the truth if it hit him square in his lying hypocritical face…. try living with that.




Rick Aldrich USMC said...

Hey Jim; you are an insecure individual. Lay off the big words, because I believe that you do not understand half of what you said. Like the old saying " if you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with BS. You tried, you lose.

Anonymous said...

Jim Conners, USMC says,

Hey Ricky, you’re clearly mentally ill. But I get it, in your pathetic dumbed down alternate universe ‘See Spot Run’ is considered a literary marvel.

What a miserable life you must have…. nothing to do all day, sitting by your computer in your mothers dingy trailer, polishing your tiny muzzle while sniffing the last remnants of your old squirrel hunting days…. fidgeting, while desperately oozing mind numbing stupidity.

Sadly for you, you lost before you even begun.


Rick Aldrich USMC said...

Hey Jim, if you only knew , I've got too many years on you. You need to stop watching the Big Bang Theory. Sorry, you'll never catch on to what life is really about. Peace, my friend....

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see birth certificate of the fraudulent Rick Aldrich. Not to prove he was born in the United States, but rather to prove he wasn’t born on Planet STOOOPID.

Anonymous said...

Rick you arn't going to win a head butting contest with a jarhead. In the world of marching and following orders, pleonastic superfluous ad hominem insults pass for erudite. Its all theyz gots. It ranks up there in the eyes of a morine, with a masters in education, speaking five languages (none of them logic) and specializing in tautology.

Anonymous said...

Jim Conners, USMC and fellow jarhead says,

Rick, you should take note of 8:19’s momentous contribution to our sociable discourse.

Granted, he has offered in his own perceptibly mentally undeveloped scatological way a plethora of nonsensical verbiage; somehow he has managed to provide a stunningly accurate analysis of your personal plight.

And while you may not always outshine the conventional, as a self proclaimed jarhead you’re presumed to know these uncomplicated critical certainties.

Thank you 8:19, and please continue with your indispensable endeavor in counseling Rick the jarhead.

p.s. Going forward, please do your best to avoid all those fancy three and four syllables words as Rick is easily dis-com-bob-u-la-ted.


Rick Aldrich USMC said...

10:33 ; someday our paths will cross, and we don't know why that happens. The one lesson you haven't learned in life, you talk with people, not down to them. So take away from this whatever you see fit. I am really doubting that you are , or were a Marine. And quit watching Gomer Pyle. He's not real, even though your imagination believes it to be, And people like you thought Einstein was dumb and the world was flat, and there is no life after death. Peace be with you.j