Thursday, July 28, 2016

Shock poll: Nate Silver’s election forecast now has Trump winning - Salon.com

    Oooops....The most oft quoted name in predictions says Donald Trump has a greater chance of winning than Hillary Clinton.  Nate Silver's 538 is the go to spot for many in media, but may not be now as he is predicting what they don't want to hear.

   Of course there is an ebb and flow to all campaigns and this year is still hard to predict....But Mr. Silver values his savant status and is unlikely to say things he doesn't believe to be true.

Shock poll: Nate Silver’s election forecast now has Trump winning - Salon.com

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yup, today's polls show the party liners were, and are lying when they claim the race is over. waaaa waaaa and all that. I imagine Dannie can't sleep a wink, as it were.

Anonymous said...

Time will tell, Mr. Mayor. It was neat to hear the man who's captain son was killed in Cheneys war, "mr trump, what have "you" done?". I heard a guy from pillar point today say, "I wanna shoot Hillary and Obama". It was disgusting. I'm so sick of uninformed, stupid people who vote based on garage type conversation. Oh, and per se guy/girl, Trump has my vote, still, unless something bizarre happens, so clam up.

Anonymous said...

Oooops…. Jeff only cited Nate Silvers “now cast” poll as of Monday July 25. What he failed to point out for whatever reason, are the other two more consistent models.

As Silver’s blog clearly explains here is the difference between the models:

Three versions of the model:

• Polls-plus: Combines polls with an economic index. Since the economic index implies that this election should be a tossup, it assumes the race will tighten somewhat.
• Polls-only: A simpler, what-you-see-is-what-you-get version of the model. It assumes current polls reflect the best forecast for November, although with a lot of uncertainty.
• Now-cast: A projection of what would happen in a hypothetical election held today. Much more aggressive than the other models.

A User’s Guide To FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 General Election Forecast:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
So Oooops… here are the real shock polls as of July 28 (updated 8 hours ago):

Now Cast: Clinton 47.1% Trump 52.9%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Polls Only Forecast: Clinton 53.7% Trump 46.3%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Polls-plus forecast: Clinton 61.6% Trump 38.3%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Oooops..........

Anonymous said...

9:44, "Cheney's War?" You're an idiot, per se. But a fashionable one.

Anonymous said...

Still three months until Election. The Clinton/Bush Machine will do everything they can to destroy Trump. They can't win any other way.

Anonymous said...


Heaven help us all if Trump is elected. Believe me, I am no Hillary fan either but I have to put myself into a position to look forward and try to resolve the question of real leadership and qualifications.

Hillary is very well qualified and will do a much better job. There is still a lot of time until the election and I hope that people get serious about looking at both platforms. If they do, I have a hard time believing that truly intelligent people will pull a level for Trump. I could be wrong, but I sincerely hope that I am not.

Anonymous said...

Intelligent people will pull the lever for Trump because the alternative is so much worse. The country is at a tipping point. If Hillary is elected, it will fall off the cliff and never climb out of the abyss. We know what Hillary will do and it is terrible. It is not possible that Trump could be that bad and it is possible that he might be just be able to put this country back on course and reverse the policies of the Bushs, Clintons and Obama.

Anonymous said...

C'mon, 8:47; ideology aside, "Hillary is very well qualified"??

She is a f*****g killer. A thief. A liar. There is no dispute. So are these attributes what make her "very well qualified"?

Anonymous said...

8:47, I think you're right. We need to keep on the present course. Bribery, cop killing, terrorism run amok, open borders, unending debt, voting fraud, missing public records, corruption, lies, all while pandering to Black Lives Matter, gays, muzlims, and people make babies and avoid work. You're quite a deep thinking guy. Tell your kids I enjoy spending their future. Vote Democrat.