Two things will happen early this week that will affect the race for AD 116. One is the out of party authorization from Conservative State Chair Mike Long. All three GOP hopefuls filed petitions. Only one will get the authorization, known in the trade as a Wilson-Pakula after the legislators behind the law that creats this gatekeeper effect in the minor parties.
John Byrne, he of many large and well placed lawn signs, would seem to have the edge since he has the Indy and Reform lines locked, and is likely the early favorite for the GOP primary against Bill Sheridan and former Olympic bobsledder Russ Finley.
We also need to see if anyone files general objections by today's deadline. The best election is no election, and with campaigns as rudimentary as these seem to be, a mistake or two and a good election law lawyer could chase a candidate out.
Whoever gets the C line could face an opportunity to ballot petition, however so many of the easy signatures are tied up, so that won't be that easy.
The mantra of upstate GOP candidates is to "unite the lines", and it's hard to imagine that not happening here, but it did happen in the 2014 Congressional race when Chairman Long rejected the perceived front runner who had run twice before in favor of the Tyro.
Few things just happen on their own, so this was likely arranged ahead of time and the other two were just played.