The race is settling in and the inevitability of a Clinton win over Trump is fading. Once the primaries end , there will be the Veep choices and the conventions which will firm up and frame the races for the fall. Then it's the debates and any gaffes that will be the only variables.
Todays NBC polling shows Mr. Trump firming up GOP support and doing at least as well as Romney with so called minorities. Black vote could be key if turnout wanes without Obama on the ballot and Trump gets at least over 10% that would hurt the Democratic coalition.
Win the Romney states and come up with 64 more Electoral votes. Florida and Ohio the easiest way to get close, but after that it gets tougher. In a close race, the way the states line up the path for Trump is narrower but doable. A two point popular vote win should flip it.
Poll: Trump narrows Clinton's lead nationally to 3 points - POLITICO