Sunday, May 1, 2016

Are the 2014 Issues Faded ?

   Two years ago in the local Assembly race, a few issues fueled a near GOP win.  Guns (SAFE Act), common core and Shelly Silver as the embodiment of NYC corruption and control.
    Do those issues have the traction this year to propel either of the possible Republican candidates in the River District to a win over Democrat Addie Russell, who clearly has learned the pitfalls of running a mediocre campaign ?
Assemblywoman Russell with Longtime Democratic Operative Ted Ford.
 
      The SAFE Act signs have mostly faded from rural lawns. People have forgotten about common core as the Governor has backed off a bit and Big Education is mostly just arguing over teacher testing.
      Sheldon Silver is gone and so is his GOP Senate counterpart. Albany corruption is widely dismissed as a "they all do it" resignation by voters. The new Speaker isn't on the lips of NNY voters and he even visited here.
       Winning that seat would require a strong organizational effort and money. The money made available last time isn't there this time.
        Neither Russ Finley or John Byrne is well positioned on these fronts , but Mr. Byrne could look forward to the considerable opposition research done on him but not deemed needed to be used last time.
        On May 5th SLC Conservatives  meet but its unclear if they can deliver the W/P and so far there is no evidence of an all out race against Ms. Russell. The Indy line W/P goes to whoever the GOP says should get it. And who's going to go out and get all those minor party petitions ?  Usually it's Ritchie staffers but how much do they care about the iconoclast Finley or Mr. Byrne, who was backed last time as anybody-but-Addie without any vetting.
        Nobody cares much about an Assembly seat and for the lawyering class in the GOP the real money is in a DA spot or a judgeship.
         Looks to me like it ends up Russell-Finley race with the incumbent the early favorite.
       

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

You hit it in the last paragraph. Nobody cares. What good does it do to take a a single seat from an assembly that is owned (with strong margins) by downstate extreme liberals? If anything, it hurst us, as we will get less freestuff, as a result of not having a member in the majority. Of course, we personally don't' care about freestuff. We don't want 100k for a monument in the park either. So WE wouldn't miss it. But the voters probably would. They love their share.

On top of that, what good does it do to replace Addie with addie-light? "Feel the Byrne" and he feels just like Addie.

We just saw that it does no good to keep the majority in the Senate. They caved on EVERYTHING.

But toward your main quesiton. No the issues are not dead, but they have not gained any more traction. The exception is possibly Silver. Addie has never come out against him and was backing him up until the day he was indicted. so yeas, an opponent could still get some mileage out of that. But they are going to need more mileage than that in an election year.

Anonymous said...

The only question here is which NYC Democrat will Addie wait tables for this year. As far as the "SAFE" act, most people are stupid enough to believe that passing laws that only influence law abiding people makes them safer. Those are the dumbasses Addie pandered to while voting as her controllers ordered her to. And Ted, someday you are going to look back at this party blessed life and be ashamed of yourself. I doubt Addie has such a foundation in morality. If it sells to the stupid, she is for it.

Anonymous said...

God you make some of the most insipid, circular arguments. If you're looking for a job, I can help you. Seriously.
But the issues mentioned by mayor Graham, have truthfully fallen by the wayside.
Only the desparate are still clinging to them.
Adelaide is as secure in her position as she's ever been. :D

Anonymous said...

I'm here for you, D, or F, or whatever. I love you.

Sure Adelaide is in a secure position. She's taking a job no American wants to do. Shelly wasn't much of a tipper.

Anonymous said...

I may not love you 245, but I do feel for you. If you're seriously looking for employment, I can help you. Please consider my offer. :D

Anonymous said...

Maybe someone "new" will run like former SLC legislator Bill Sheridan. He has prior legislative experience, lives squarely in the River District and would have the time and energy to devote to campaigning for and serving in the position.

Anonymous said...

Why does that picture remind me of two pieces of Croghan Bologna in clothes ?

Middle-Class Mike said...

I Tweeted today: @MiddleClassMike Assemblywoman Addie Russell 116th District, running for reelection, was Speaker Silvers most ardent supporter way too long! Mike Flynn 'Middle Class Mike'

Anonymous said...

Cute couple.

Anonymous said...

D, I have a job. I'm dedicated towards rubbing your party controlled butt in the muck. I have no other reason to exist. I feel you pain. B:^^

Anonymous said...

She did sit up front and cheer Silver a bit to hard.