The politcal calendar is moving along quickly and this week a GOP insider in a position to know said the Assembly race may indeed be Russ Finley taking on Addie Russell as the last challenger doesn't seem inclined to run. John Byrne nearly defeated Ms. Russell two years ago but has made no public pronouncements this year and the time to get mobilized is nearing.
The prospect of a GOP primary and the uncertainties involving getting the C line are issues as is raising money as two years ago the Republican spent considerable money without really raising much, and that likely won't happen again. A better organized effort on the DEM side is also a factor.
2014 was a perfect storm for Mr. Byrne in many ways and he came close, losing by 90 votes. That storm isn't lining up this tme. Issues have changed as have tactics and the people behind the scenes are different. Media antipathy towards Ms. Russell seems to have waned.
Local GOP establishment is also bummed out over the rise of Trump, a candidate they feel will lose easily, according to my source.
Hopefully a malaise among the party elites won't hurt the party in other important races like Congress where reelecting Elise Stefanik should be a priority.