Thursday, November 26, 2015

Nate Silver Not Buying the Trump Stampede

      For all the fuss on cable news about the real chance of a Trump nomination or Presidency, the guy who predicts stuff pretty well, Nate Silver of Five-Thirty-Eight writes a pretty compelling piece on why the chances are still pretty long.
     The main reason is the number of people really paying attention doesn't spike till some votes are cast. Mr. Silver makes a point, but the Trump phenomenon has had legs so far and the primary obstacle (Jeb) is so low energy now, its hard to see him recovering. However, when you look at the endorsement primary and the money primary, you wouldn't think so.
  If Cruz wins Iowa and The Donald wins NH and SC, then its all about the Florida primary and that could end Jeb and Marco.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

LOL...not that I am predicting Trump to win, but rumors of Nate Silver's prescience might be a tad miss[over]estimated. Comment on your blog as linked to below:

Anonymous said...
Oh wait, for those of us who are supporting the superior candidate Aaron Woolf… Nate Silver’s amazingly accurate Five Thirty Eight Blog has Aaron pulling off a win by 1.1%!!

That’s up .02% from a month ago when it was .09%
Awhooooooooo!PM


July 31, 2014 at 10:03

http://mayorgraham.blogspot.com/2014/07/will-wonders-never-cease.html

Anonymous said...

Its pretty simple math.. Taxpayers in this country dont trust their politicans. They mostly are corrupt individuals and are sponsored by corruption in their major donors.
They lie, they dont answer questions.. Trump dont need the donors so he owes no-one. I dont know if he lies, he does speak like a fool at times but who of us dont. Hes sucessful, and thats what people want a sucessful person who can lead them to sucess..
I want you all to go back a ways and follow the Bush family from Prescott Bush to todays Bushes and then make you conclussions.

Anonymous said...

Good grief 7:03AM do you realize how many election there are in this great and mighty land of ours? Incidentally, Silver never made the call for Woolf to win. As you can plainly see, that poll result was four months ahead of the election. In fact, 1 to 2 months prior to the election he called it for Stefanic.

Nice try though. (not really, it’s Thanksgiving and I just wanted you to feel better about your delusional self)

Anyways….enjoy.

Was Nate Silver the Most Accurate 2012 Election Pundit?
“….Obama may have won the presidency on election night, but pundit Nate Silver won the internet by correctly predicting presidential race outcomes in every state plus the District of Columbia — a perfect 51/51 score.”

Source: http://rationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-

2012-election-pundit/

But for a really good belly laugh check out Karl Rove’s embarrassing meltdown on Fox News during the 2012 Presidential election.

Election 2012: Fox News Channel after his own network declares President Obama the winner:

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7CfXOJ1Hdg