North Country Representitive Bill Owens now has two publicly released polls showing him with a double digit lead over GOP challenger Matt Doheny.
A survey by Siena College puts Mr. Owens up by a significant 13 point margin. A previous poll released by the DCCC had shown Mr. Owens up by 12. Two years ago Mr. Owens won by one point in a three way race.
There is no gender gap with the margin the same among both sexes, but there is an age gap with older voters more heavily for the incumbent.
The takeaway is that for Mr. Doheny, it's a case of the dogs not liking the dog food, as he is only pulling 36%. Mr. Owens is nipping at 50% and that means a more intense effort to define Mr. Owens in less favorable terms. Hence the current ads linking Mr. Owens to President Obama and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. The concurrent issue is money as if the race is seen as slipping away, big $$$ on the national level may go elsewhere, including so called super PACs. Of course, the Republican has the means to self fund.
Mr. Obama is marginally favored in NNY, although by only five points.
The Doheny campaign says the poll was taken during the DNC, but the two weeks of conventions was a blur and had little effect.
Strategies ? Doheny ramps up the ads to define Owens as a big spending, job killing liberal as he tries to drive Owen's numbers back into the mid 40s. Mr. Doheny also has to rely on a big GOP registration advantage which he believes will turn out for him.
Mr. Owens will avoid debates, stay above the fray and continue to look reassuring and statesmanlike while hoping his opponent looks extreme and frantic. Medicare is working as an issue for Owens, so look for that matter to stay in the ads.
Green Party candidate Donald Hassig is polling at six percent, showing there is an element who say a pox on both your houses.
Siena On NY-21: Owens vs. Doheny, 49-36