Daughters of Anarchy From Lewis County

Daughters of Anarchy From Lewis County
They Travel in a Pack

Monday, September 10, 2012

Siena On NY-21: Owens vs. Doheny, 49-36

      North Country Representitive Bill Owens now has two publicly released polls showing him with a double digit lead over GOP challenger Matt Doheny.
      A survey by Siena College puts Mr. Owens up by a significant 13 point margin. A previous poll released by the DCCC had shown Mr. Owens up by 12. Two years ago Mr. Owens won by one point in a three way race.
       There is no gender gap with the margin the same among both sexes, but there is an age gap with older voters more heavily for the incumbent.
        The takeaway is that for Mr. Doheny, it's a case of the dogs not liking the dog food, as he is only pulling 36%. Mr. Owens is nipping at 50% and that means a more intense effort to define Mr. Owens in less favorable terms.  Hence the current ads linking Mr. Owens to President Obama and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. The concurrent issue is money as if the race is seen as slipping away, big $$$ on the national level may go elsewhere, including so called super PACs.  Of course, the Republican has the means to self fund.
        Mr. Obama is marginally favored in NNY, although by only five points.
         The Doheny campaign says the poll was taken during the DNC, but the two weeks of conventions was a blur and had little effect.
         Strategies ?  Doheny ramps up the ads to define Owens as a big spending, job killing liberal as he tries to drive Owen's numbers back into the mid 40s. Mr. Doheny also has to rely on a big GOP registration advantage which he believes will turn out for him.
        Mr. Owens will avoid debates, stay above the fray and continue to look reassuring and statesmanlike while hoping his opponent looks extreme and frantic. Medicare is working as an issue for Owens, so look for that matter to stay in the ads.
       Green Party candidate Donald Hassig is polling at six percent, showing there is an element who say a pox on both your houses.
Siena On NY-21: Owens vs. Doheny, 49-36

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Very interesting. And a little surprising but these results are so similar to the poll by the Owens team it adds to its validity. One point I noted is the major advantage Owens has with catholics compared to Doheny. This was the one part of the poll results that really didn't surprise me based on the rumblings I have heard. Although many Catholics were likely supportive of Doheny's anti-gay marriage position, his lack of respect for the sanctity of marriage is a big deal. The cheating is one thing obviously, but I know a lot of people were surprised he and his wife got married in a church when his wife had already been married in a church to someone else and was married to that person for several years. Even if she got the marriage annulled, a lot of Catholics consider getting married for a second time in a church to be a no no. This is the first evidence I have seen that those rumblings might be affecting him in the race.

Dan Francis said...

I say "elect" Hassig and "send a message."

For sure, there is a Pox on this Congress with their 10% JAR (job approval rating) ... Send Don down there and watch the feathers fly (tongue in cheek of course).

He'll dance all over the House floor and make fancy speeches and scream with the best of them just like now.

Anonymous said...

I think the comments coming out of the Doheny campaign are WAY too defensive. I think they would have been better off saying that the results were disappointing but "polls are polls" and this just inspires them that much more to be sure to get their message out to everyone....that he believes he is the better candidate with a better plan to get the district on track...etc. They should have focused on the still surprisingly high number of poll responders who didn't have enough information to have opinions on various issues. Talking about the continued need to get out and meet the voters and educate them on the Doheny would have been much more positive and professional instead of pointing to the bias from the DNC (if that were the case wouldn't Obama's numbers vs Romney been as high if not higher than Owens' numbers vs Doheny? - they had only a 5 point spread, not 13). You never want to see your congressman, or future congressman, appearing whiney and the responses from Doheny and his staff seem very whiney.

Anonymous said...

The disparity in the spread between Obama and Romney (5 points) and Owens and Doheny (13 points), when Doheny and Romney have similar platforms shows that the NY-21 poll results have a lot more to do with Doheny's character then his platform. He is going to have to unleash some pretty negative ads against Owens in the hope that he can make Owens look at least just as bad. I don't think can overcome the perception about his character with the positives of his platform and thus probably can not win without going hyper negative. This is going to get even uglier, I fear.

Anonymous said...

Doheny and his flack, Jude can spin this all they want but the numbers are certain to drive Matt crazy. He is further down now than at this point 2 years ago. This should be troubling given he's spent 2 years campaigning and has made no in-roads whatsoever with the electorate. The cavorting with another woman was likely the final straw for those who were willing to give Matt a second chance after the back-to-back BWI's. The fact is that Matt's campaign is not working, his message is flawed, he is too arrogant to make the necessary changes while there is still time and he will lose again. Freeland, Seymour, Hook all have to go. Matt needs fresh faces and must be willing to listen to someone that will give him the straight talk, even if the message is painful. Let's face it, memorizing all the towns in the district and posting in on his campaign site, while impressive to Matt and his advisors, only demonstrates his lack of understanding of the issues facing the electorate. It also proves that Matt still hasn't grown up in the past 2 years and thinks that being the smartest guy in the class will be the ticket to victory. Owens by 5 points in November.

Anonymous said...

Doheny cracks that Owens hasn't got 50%. Guess what! Doheny isn't close to 40%. I think when election gets closer more third party leaners come back to major party candidates, that means more Hassig votes for Owens.

Anonymous said...

Dear Matt,
I know you read these blog postings so listen carefully and follow these steps to victory:
1. Stop the arrogance and haughtiness. Voters like Mr. Owens, they don't like you. Time to show some himility and North Country modesty.
2. Get a new campaign manager asap. Like yesterday.
3. Get a new media consultant asap. You've gone negative for 2 years and it's not working. Hook is getting rich off you but not giving any results. Pelosi and Obama are not as radioactive in NNY as you seem to think. And besides, Owens is not them no matter how hard you try to make that point. It is not working.
4. Bring your mom back...people could relate to her more than they relate to your wall street ways.
5. Stop memorizing towns and begin talking about the simple things that matter to NNY'ers.
6. Spend more time with Mary.
7. Find a campaign manager that can give you the tough love and actually listen to him.
8. Start talking positive. Owens smothers the electorate with kindness and aww-shucks charm. Give it a try.
9. Stop being mean to your staff.
10. Follow 1-9 above!
Good luck!

NY21inMD said...

I am surprised by these numbers. I was thinking Owens might be up a few points, but not double digits. Apparently, Bill Owens is a good representative with whom people are comfortable. If I was a Republican money man, I would not waste a dime on Matt Doheny.

These numbers also suggest that NY21, and Jeff/Lew/StL counties in particular, are more Democratic than ever. With more Republicans registered, can we say that NY21 is a RINO district?

Anonymous said...

Guess the voters are smarter than Doheny thought.

Earthbob said...

One finding of interest from this poll is the lack of contact either side has made with about half of those polled. This usually gives an incumbent an edge.

How can you persuade voters to pull the lever for you if you do not contact them. This is much more than get out the vote at the end of an election.

The amount of money spent on ads could have just as easily gone for actual voter contact earlier in the year.

Anonymous said...

I can understand the sleaze factor doing in Doheny, but Obama polling over Romney, not likely

Anonymous said...

I just looked at the rest of this poll and there is no way it represents the views of this district. I am going to agree with the Doheny people that this poll is just continuing a history of Siena Polls being wildly inaccurate

Anonymous said...

1:02 - you totally nailed it. I love the part about the mom too, that is so true. He should be sending her out on the campaign trail instead of sending his wife out on her own. I am sure Matt's wife is a fine lady, but she is a lawyer from new york city, essentially the female version of Matt but without his gregariousness, and people just aren't relating to her. They need someone warm who seems sincere and genuine and I think Matt's mom could fill that role much better.

I couldn't agree more about the comments on Pelosi too. He has been chirping the anti-Pelosi stuff for over 2 years and it isn't resonating, especially now she isn't even the majority leader anymore. New tactic please.

Anonymous said...

With the Doheny bunch sticking their heads in the sand (or elsewhere), maybe Hassig will drum his way into 2nd place.

It will be fun to see how fast Patty dumps him.

Anonymous said...

3:07-I agree with you. I am willing to bet that the people more likely to participate in this poll were the Doheny haters instead of the Doheny supporters. The Doheny haters seem to adamantly detest the man and thus would surely never hang up on a pollster offering them the opportunity to vocalize their hatred. The Doheny supporters, on the other hand, on the whole are probably more passive republican voters who are voting along party lines and wouldn't be as inclined to participate. Just a thought.

I will say the most alarming part of the poll is the total domination of Owens in Doheny's home turf. Those are the people who know Doheny the best and have been on the receiving end of his campaign since 2009. I think it is safe to say they aren't impressed.

Anonymous said...

3:49, I agree. The Doheny campaign needs to pull back on the wife-only events. As you said, I am sure she is a fine lady but she isn't a politician and she doesn't have the charisma to carry the events by herself. Often times the wives are the favored half of a campaign team but she is missing the almost undefinable hometown softness that typically makes the other halves so endearing. Couple that with all the speculation about the marriage and her solo campaign events inevitably fall very flat, usually working against the campaign. I really hope they rethink that strategy. I always feel so bad for her when I see her struggling through the events on her own. It isn't fair to put her in that position, it just isn't her strength.

Anonymous said...

Dear Matt,
I know you read these blog postings so listen carefully and follow these simple steps to victory:
You need to promise free$tuff to everyone and anyone.
Only...don't call it free$tuff, call it "access to" stuff.
If you get tired of calling it "access to" then call it "reform".
Get your picture taken with a tractor and a barn in the background.
Do not memorize the names of all the places you will be representing that you visited. Voters don't care about those small towns and villages, they care about their own towns and that's it.So memorize a few big voting block towns and that's it.

And whatever you do. When you come out in favor of something that your voters hate, such as Obamcare, you need to lie over and over again and tell us that your voters thanked you for doing it.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Owens don't need his mam or wife for campagning or do get some sympathy from the voters and that's the way it should be.

The candidates character and integrity should count and not his family.

I never unterstood, why family or wifes has to be dragged in to politics, when they are not politicans.

Anonymous said...

10:04- I think the wives can play critical roles in the campaign process and can be very very effective. Let's face it, Michelle Obama did a whole better at the DNC than her husband. But Mary Doheny is not Michelle Obama. It is no slight on her she is just not cut out for this. Mary should take a distant back seat in the campaigning. This is not a marriage the campaign should try to exploit and Mary does not have the popularity to pull off solo appearances. This campaign strategy is embarrassing and hopefully will end after these poll results. I beg the Doheny camp to be smart here. Put egos aside and start running a smarter campaign. Please, for all the people looking to remove Owens from office, I beg you to be smarter.

Anonymous said...

“Let's face it, Michelle Obama did a whole better at the DNC than her husband.”

I agree. She also did a whole lot better than virtually everyone at the RNC, including Mitt and his wife. What was her name again? You know, the lady with the horse.

Anonymous said...

3:40 & 12:40- I totally agree. Michelle Obama rocked it. She seemed passionate, sincere and approachable. She always has. She is a huge asset for Barack. Some spouses can be a big positive in a campaign and some can actually hurt (remember Jon Kerry's wife?). The candidates shouldn't force it if the connection with the voters isn't there for whatever reason, it ends up hurting them in the end.