The reaction from the Doheny camp on the Siena poll is precictable....It's
just a snapshot in time....That is true...and it's also true that Rep. Bill Owens is still under 50%. It's also true Doheny is competitive in the newly added eastern counties.
But.....his numbers in the western counties are dismal and this speaks to the need to make a direct appeal to voters who have gotten to know these two men.
Mr. Doheny adheres to conventional wisdom that Owens was elected with the lowest percentage of any incumbent and is thus vulnerable....Drive his numbers down just a whisker and he's toast...Do it by linking him to Nancy Pelosi and the President's health plan.
I don't think the President is a factor here, and I think people support enough of the core ideas of Obamacare. Nancy Pelosi is yesterday's boogie woman.
Profligate spending is a good issue. Staving off the ill effects of sequestration on Fort Drum is a good issue. An energetic and hustling Congressman is a pitch.....
Since people vote for who they like, it's also possible people like Mr. Owens more...at least based on what they have seen. Nobody likes not to be liked but it happens all the time in politics.
Mr. Doheny is meeting a ton of people and I am sure the response is good. But it's easy to confuse courtesy with commitment.....The Siena poll is likely fairly accurate...It shows a Congressman unable to get to 50% and a challenger not closing the deal yet.
Doheny Statement On Siena Poll | Doheny for Congress