Political pundit Stu Rothenberg is listing NY 21 as a winable seat for the GOP and that has the Doheny campaign trumpeting the analysis.
It is certainly winnable given Doheny's three primary plusses...the traditional voting patterns of the area...his access to resources...and his personal energy and intellect.
On the flip side, NNY has been trending Democrat of late, Rep. Owens looks and sounds like a Member of Congress...and the recent Gawker piece opens the door for unfortunate comparisons in the newly added eastern parts of the district.
I think a lot of Doheny's prospects hinge on how Mitt Romney is faring in the national beauty contest. If President Obama's approval hovers in the 40s and Mr. Romney makes a strong case, I think it helps here.
It also depends on Doheny's ability to keep the race focused on his core economic and tax issues as that is not where Mr. Owen's wants the campaign to head.
If Doheny comes out of his primary with 70+, and talks about what he is an expert at, then its competitive...and he can win.
A lot can happen in six months and except for dolts like us, most people are not really focused yet...