Anne Marie Buerkle is gaining ground as more absentees are counted in NY25, the Syracuse based seat held by Rep. Dan Maffei. With a clear plurality of absentees cast coming from registered Republicans, it is widely thought Ms. Buerkle will win.
That means all three Congressional districts adjacent to our NY23 are now held by the GOP..Currently they are all held by Democrats.....It will be interesting to see how that affects redistricting.
Rep. Bill Owens lives in Plattsburgh, and to maintain a district he can win, he will need those areas like St. Lawrence County which went heavily his way.
Given you can't pick up or lose real estate on three sides of NY23, it would seem the North Country may be left in tact....or the extreme opposite would be to attach portions of NNY to the 20th,24th and 25th.....
With the state legislature likely split, nobody will be able to force a radically partisan plan, so the likely deal would seem to be, protect incumbents where possible.
Since one and maybe two seats will be lost due to the census, somebody will be out of luck...But likely not someone like Owens located on a remote corner of upstate.
If the 23rd is essentially unchanged except for adjusting around the edges, look for an Owens-Doheny rematch..With Doug Hoffman out of the picture as the deal will be cut this time to not allow Hoffman the Conservative line.