For Watertown area residents the recent election was historic in that I doubt there was ever a time (certainly not in my memory) when there were full bore contests for Congress, State Senate, and both local Assembly seats.
Now that NNY is home to competitive elections, will it happen again in 2012 ?
My guess is the Congressional seat will be a rematch between Bill Owens and Matt Doheny, depending on where redistricting puts all of us. The race was close this time and the presence of Doug Hoffman so changed the dynamics of the race, Mr. Doheny has to be considered competitive in a straight two way race. The hitch will be that Rep. Owens will be that much more established in two years.
The State Senate seat will likely be an easy reelection for Patty Ritchie, as there is no second Darrel Aubertine to throw at her and frankly if Governor Cuomo makes progress in concert with a GOP Senate, voters will see no need to change that.
Darrel Aubertine will likely either retire or take a job in the new administration and conclude the rigors of running are not worth it. If he does run, it will only be because there is reason to think Ms. Ritchie is vulnerable. However, even if she stumbles, which I doubt, will voters want to flip the Senate again ? My guess is no.
As for the new Senator, she likely lays low, learns the trade and hopes that events in Albany favor her position.
The only wild card would be if Assemblywoman Addie Russell ran for Senate and I don't see that happening as I don't think she could defeat a freshman senator who is still on probation with voters.
As for the Assembly seats, Dave Forsythe came on strong at the end and may go again. He seemed to enjoy campaigning once he got on track, although I don't know if he wants to dip into his own wallet for another $50K or more to run. Its still a long shot trying to make up those last ten points to beat Assemblywoman Addie Russell.
In the 122nd, Ken Blankenbush likely faces no challenge as I do not believe Brian McGrath will be back so soon.
In short, 2012 will not be the advertising bonanza local television saw this time, but there is still more money to made compared to the good old days of GOP hegemony.
38 comments:
You really feel Doheny wants to lick his wounds a third time do yu mayor.. Hes not the second coming of JC as you would like to make him... He lost this race because he is not a credible canidate and his integrity is in question.. Not his stance on issues.. The amount of his own money he spent in this election and the lack of any real GOP money for him established the fact that he had other motives than helping NNY.. The voters were wise.
Mayor, your analysis is quite reasonable. Locally, for me at least as an outside observer, the most significant takeaway of 2012 is the enduring (and growing?) strength of the Democratic Party in the North Country and the loss of the "GOP hegemony."
I think the voters in NY 23 showed they want change its just not going to be Doheny.. Hoffman in all likelyhood would have won.If Dohenys crying its all about the party was his true feelings why didnt he see this and drop out and support Hoffman.. When Hoffman lost to Doheny it become apparent that it was Doheny that was the spoiler and not Hoffman..Doheny made too many outrageous statements.. For instance running DeDe down after giving such a big contribution to her previously.. Stand up and act Republican if you are Republican yet he wouldnt go near the GOP gouvernor canidate when hea appeared locally.. I hate quitters yet he hired the guy from Ogdensburg who had just quit the 118th race.. He talked out of the side of his mouth and it come back to haunt him... Someone implied that Doheny made his money from selling products that he used himself.. If was a implication made by an idiot but his staff immediately stated he would drug test daily.. Why even acknowledge these allegations.... Hes just not got what it takes to be in Washington period end of sentence and end of career...
As far as Forsythes career in politics.. His three year career in Canton speaks for itself.. Zero acomplishments
Ken better be ready in the 122nd. There is already talk of someone running that will beat him. If there still is a 122nd that includes Ken. He may end up in Addies district.
Sad to say the mayor is correct.
Sad that the GOP does not see the intrinsic weakness in Doheny and recruit another contestant to replace him. But what do you expect from people that run Dede and Barkley?
Phil Reed is clean...run him.
McGrath will be back. He outperformed every number in a tough year for Dems. Ken will be redistricted to Addie's district and that willclear the path for McGrath, who is very impressive and well like in Lewis and St. Lawrence Counties.
Hadn't thought of the redistricting angle...You must be a deeply placed operative.
In any event, if he is beat, his final two years earnings will be at the $80K level....I am sure that didn't cross anyone's mind.
10:31 Phil Reed for Congress.
BAHAWAWAWA
Put a sock in it - those who won are not even in office yet and your talking 2012...
Add this to the long list of BS issues that contribute to the turmoil we see in politics today: the constant hyping of political issues and races two years out.
Sad, really.
Phil Reed would be great for us in Albany.
MS
The only reason Ken ran was for a pension. Sad. McGrath was such a better choice.
Dan this is a Political Blog run by a Politician. If You don't like the Content, Don't Read it. Moron
It's not Dan's fault...democrats live in the here and now...if they were capable of thinking about the future they wouldn't be democrats.
9:43,
At least Forsythe was willing to stand up to the public employee unions and say no to unnecessary sales tax hike. We need more tax figthers like Forsythe in albany.
At least Ken was able to stand up to the corporate windmill companies. Oh wait, he didn't.
He'll be a one termer who does nothing except collect a paycheck.
127.. Lets get something straight. I respect anyones position on sales tax, but while the counties in and around our district get the benefit from it SLC sits idle.. As far as his saying no to the unions your mistaken.. This a--hole shook hands and came to a tenative agreement with the workforce. He was on the negotiating comittee with the Correctional people. Once they agreed to take it back to full board for a vote he changed his vote to no... I dont know how you were brought up, but when I made an agreement I honored it. If I couldnt I would have gone back to the party I agreed with and explained. He snuck behind their backs like a coward and stuck a knife it them. Thats saying no heh... Hes done in a month or so and some progress will be made in the contract talks... He not only isnt liked very well but proved he cant be trusted....
I forgive Ken BB for the wind vote, but I wouldn't trust him.
McGrath's Facebook Harem is still at work.
3:52 ur a TWISTED LIAR
Get ur facts right, ur living off the system is over. we can't afford ur yearly 3% & 4% raises!
That's why Forsythe voted NO!
I'm back. Do I think Bbush will be an asset to our district? No. These next 2 years will prove the voters wrong. The only thing driving him, is the greed for money.Remember, I said all along, Ken's motto is, "what is in it for me" ; or should I say "which way does the wind blow"?
3"52 I know Forsythe never shook your hand or anyone else's for a contract for sure. Sh-t he did not even go to the last meetings. Check the facts.Your man Paquin negotiated the deal with no authority and that was proven. You think you really deserve 4 or 5 percent raises and a new castle in canton as well? On the backs of us taxpayers. Get a life. You prove he did and I will eat my words. There must be minutes of the negotiation deal play the card.
The Donkey party, as NY23MD54skid says, is getting stronger. The only thing we have, because of the Donkey party in NY, is government jobs. With all that sucking going on it stands to reason government lovers would vote their feelings. This election isn't bad for those of us with public sector jobs. But it sure is another nail in the coffins of the kids just getting started in live. Who gives a sh#t. We don't. There's always WalMart. And tacos.
If Doheny stays involved in the community and makes a difference to NY23, he has a good shot in 2012. If he goes back to his old job then it is clear he was just using us to fuel his ego and 2012 will be a real challenge for him.
804.. Paquin was the chairman of the negotiating committee.. Forsythe and the others came to a tenative agreement with the union period.Thats exactly what happened and why the County faces unfair labor practices now.. As far as rasies the union had agreed to 1percent 1percent 1.5 percent. The stumbling block was insurance which the county wanted 10percent contribution.. The union countered with a set figure to be negotiated each contract.. The County wanted it all their way.. If 10percent comes to twenty dollars they whats wrong with just saying its twenty doillars.. The wrong is the County wanted to raise the insurance to figures only they had access to..
You want minutes get them yourself but thats tyhe reality of it.. He was and is a coward. Look a man in the eye and agree with him then stab him in the back... This guy has made his mark by saying no then crying I,m in the minority....
One more comment 804.. Minutes may be hard to find however the newpaper in Ogdensburg carried the story for a week or two.. Forsythe tried to use the County Manager for his scapegoat for his change of vote.. He suggested she influenced his vote and he thought he had to vote that way.. Its in the Journal and its that simple to acess. I,ll bet you dont really care though. You made up your mind that hes your hero and the public servants everywhere are bad and need to work for nothing.. You obviously made bad choices in your life. You picked a career and made a lot of money but it all came to an end.. They made choices and got good bennies so now they should lose it all right..
Hey 8:16/8:25, just reading your response shows what a hateful and spiteful person you really are. Now, I am not pretending to be an expert on this issue, however, I do know FOR A FACT that minutes were kept. Unless you are going to present these minutes as PROOF, well, your argument is meaningless. You can't go by a simple hearsay argument. In the court of law, your argument and statements would be thrown out because of the lack of factual evidence. So, get some facts or stop posting. Cause right now, well, your just venting out of pure hate with no proof in an effort to attack a person. Sounds like you need to get some things in order.
Facts are facts. I know them you dont. If you want proof read back the journal. The County or union dont make their minutes available to me or you.. I have no hate for anyone let alone a loser like him. People like you want the services the Cou ty provides you but you dont want to pay for them. If the County cut positions they could save money. Trouble they dont have the confidence to cut any as fools like you want them all.. What would you like to see the County cut and tell Forsythe so he can start the ball rolling. People will be wanting district courts soon.. They will tell you all the good things but no bad things. You will vote for them then find out these courts would actually increase your taxes and make more jobs for the County.
I'm sorry, but believe it or not, not everything you read in the paper or see on the news is FACT. And trust me, I am from Ogdensburg and read the Journal on a regular basis. They are hardly a credible source of news. They have corrections to articles literally every other day because of false reporting and errors. But a news outlet is not a source of fact. Legal documents like METTING MINUTES are.
And yet you are so quick to call Forsythe a loser... Wow, you sure sound like a county employee who didn't recieve a raise in a tough economic period. Listen bud, we are all going through hard times. Giving you a raise while we are all taking paycuts and having to pay higher taxes for you to recieve an increased salary is insane. Again, you are filled with spite towards an elected official because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to. And trust me, I hardly support any programs done by the county. It is your liberal friends like Tedra Cobb, Sam Burns, and Pat Turbett who started spending away the counties money accrued over the years of Republican leadership. You are so quick to attack Forsythe instead of looking at those who actualy caused the issue.
Stop whining on the blogs about how unfair the contract talks were. Until you present me and the rest of this blog with some factual evidence PROVING that what you say is true, just stop. Enough is enough.
Your one hundred percent right. The election is over Forsythe lost and lets move on.
I have a feeling you know i,m one hundred percent correct on the issue but I,ll mail my proof to you anonymous... Oh I forgot your address or is it anonymous.
It's fine to be fighting over Forsythe. But I need to remind you. You reelected Sheldon Silver's housekeeper, Addie Jenne Whatever. So while your throwing dirt over the annual raises you think you're entitled to, your kids are about to resume taking it up the as soon as the Thug and AddieGirl go back to work. Congratulations to all thinking NYers.
Hahah, bud, your anonymous as well. Don't get too cocky there. And why don't you show EVERYONE this so called "proof" so we can make sure the facts are straight, ok? You are hardly correct my friend. And the sad thing is, you know it, yet continue to hide. You are the one making these types of outlandish acusations. If you are going to make such statements, be prepared to back it up. So far? Yeah, thats right, NOTHING.
While you guys throw stones, Addie and Shelly continue to use your kids. I do hope the state gives both of you a grant for a condom.
I think Doug Hoffman should and will frun again ... You guys tried to make him feel small like he'd done something wrong ... what a joke!
MCM
I agree about Hoffman.. Next time he should run and ignore
Doheny.. If the GOP bosses are foolish enough to consider Matt agian they lose again.
If Hoffman runs again it can only be because he knows how to write off his election expenses. The man has had his chance(s). He lost every time. He has also helped elect Owens/Pelosi, twice. I don't want to see or hear from him ever again. His supporters need to get their knuckles off the ground and concentrate on getting Nancy's plaything out of Congress.
Don't forget AJR "Put a book in a child's hand" is in the mall, Let's all buy a book on economics for her.
Doug Hoffman exposed a phony in Matt Doheny and the Old guard GOP. He was out manned outspend by tons amd sto;; came within six hundred votes of winning the primary. He endorced the winner of the primary and people still didnt want Doheny so think it out people. Its quite obvious.
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