For Watertown area residents the recent election was historic in that I doubt there was ever a time (certainly not in my memory) when there were full bore contests for Congress, State Senate, and both local Assembly seats.
Now that NNY is home to competitive elections, will it happen again in 2012 ?
My guess is the Congressional seat will be a rematch between Bill Owens and Matt Doheny, depending on where redistricting puts all of us. The race was close this time and the presence of Doug Hoffman so changed the dynamics of the race, Mr. Doheny has to be considered competitive in a straight two way race. The hitch will be that Rep. Owens will be that much more established in two years.
The State Senate seat will likely be an easy reelection for Patty Ritchie, as there is no second Darrel Aubertine to throw at her and frankly if Governor Cuomo makes progress in concert with a GOP Senate, voters will see no need to change that.
Darrel Aubertine will likely either retire or take a job in the new administration and conclude the rigors of running are not worth it. If he does run, it will only be because there is reason to think Ms. Ritchie is vulnerable. However, even if she stumbles, which I doubt, will voters want to flip the Senate again ? My guess is no.
As for the new Senator, she likely lays low, learns the trade and hopes that events in Albany favor her position.
The only wild card would be if Assemblywoman Addie Russell ran for Senate and I don't see that happening as I don't think she could defeat a freshman senator who is still on probation with voters.
As for the Assembly seats, Dave Forsythe came on strong at the end and may go again. He seemed to enjoy campaigning once he got on track, although I don't know if he wants to dip into his own wallet for another $50K or more to run. Its still a long shot trying to make up those last ten points to beat Assemblywoman Addie Russell.
In the 122nd, Ken Blankenbush likely faces no challenge as I do not believe Brian McGrath will be back so soon.
In short, 2012 will not be the advertising bonanza local television saw this time, but there is still more money to made compared to the good old days of GOP hegemony.