Lots of national chatter about the change in the numbers in NY23 that resulted in Doug Hoffman losing by 2000 fewer votes......
Last night I did an interview on Capital Tonight with Erin Billups. She is the new temporary host of the show, although I am told she will not be the permanent choice. Too bad, she did a good job last night.
Musing about a flip in the race is fun, but harmless as it is highly unlikely the race could be changed by the outstanding absentees. One variable is the short time line of the special election created a November 16 deadline for military ballots, but few of those will actually be cast.
So about 7100 absentees are in play.
DeDe Scozzafava will get about a quarter of those as these are people who voted before she bolted from the race and her campaign had an outreach program to the absentees, as did the Democrats. The Hoffman campaign had no such program.
Taking out the DeDe votes there are probably about 5000 votes left in play and Hoffman would need 80% of those to pull even.
That just isn't going to happen, so Bill Owens will stay in.
The change did provide a chatter point for cable news, and changing numbers certainly reenforce the feelings of those with no confidence in our electoral process.
Its all part of the game.